The
Lassonde
Curve

The Lassonde Curve was originally developed to describe the price lifecycle of mining stocks — but it maps perfectly onto any company where there's a long gap between when the technology is discovered and when it generates real revenue.

The key insight: these stocks don't go from hype to production in a straight line. They crash, get abandoned, and then — once a real milestone is hit — re-rate violently to the upside. Most investors miss the re-rating because they left during the crash.

ASTS is not an incremental improvement on existing cellular infrastructure. It replaces the need for it entirely — beaming broadband directly from low earth orbit to unmodified phones. The entire model of how wireless connectivity is delivered changes.

QS is not a better lithium-ion battery. Solid-state lithium-metal is a completely different class of technology — no liquid electrolyte, no lithium plating, dramatically higher energy density, faster charge, and a safety profile that makes today's EV batteries look primitive.

Both represent a before and after moment for their respective industries. Not 10% better. An order of magnitude different.

ASTS is targeting the global mobile connectivity market — over 5 billion smartphone users, with roughly half still lacking reliable broadband. Every mobile network operator on earth is a potential partner or customer. The serviceable market is measured in hundreds of billions annually.

QS is targeting the global EV battery market, projected to exceed $400B annually by 2030, plus adjacent markets in defense, aerospace, humanoid robotics, and grid storage. The battery is the single most expensive and limiting component in every electric vehicle. Whoever wins the solid-state race wins the EV decade.

In both cases, the question is not whether the market is big enough. It is whether the technology delivers — and the evidence is accumulating that it does.

ASTS did not go it alone. It built partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and over 50 mobile network operators covering nearly 3 billion subscribers globally. AT&T signed the first Definitive Agreement in May 2024 — converting an MOU into a binding commercial commitment. Verizon, which had been a vocal public skeptic of ASTS, signed its own DA in October 2025. When your most prominent critic becomes a paying customer, the bear thesis collapses. The MNOs are not just customers; many are investors. They have every incentive to see ASTS succeed.

QS counts Volkswagen Group — through its PowerCo battery subsidiary — as its anchor OEM partner and investor. VW has committed billions to the EV transition and needs QS's technology to win. Beyond VW, QS has signed Joint Development Agreements with multiple unnamed top-10 automakers. These are the largest industrial companies in the world, with the engineers, factories, and capital to scale whatever QS produces. They do not sign JDAs with technology that doesn't work.

When Verizon signs a DA, you don't walk away. When VW writes the check, you don't walk away. The validation from these partners is the strongest signal available that the technology is real.

The AT&T Definitive Agreement in May 2024 was not just a commercial deal — it was a credibility event. It proved to the skeptics that the largest US carrier had done its due diligence and concluded the technology was real, scalable, and commercially viable. That broke ASTS out of its orphan period. Then Verizon — a vocal skeptic — signed its own DA in October 2025, confirming the thesis entirely and accelerating the bull run.

Eagle Line is QS's equivalent moment. The first pilot production line inauguration — combined with $19.5M in first customer billings — proves the battery is not just a lab sample. It can be manufactured. The question now is yield and throughput, not whether it works.

The market repriced ASTS the moment Verizon committed. It has not yet repriced QS, even though the analogous milestone has been hit. That gap is where the opportunity lives.

The second discovery phase for QS will be triggered by one or more of the following:

1. Eagle Line yield data — production throughput and uptime metrics from the Q1 2026 earnings call (April 29) will be the first hard signal of whether the manufacturing process is scaling.

2. A second OEM deal — PowerCo (VW) is the anchor customer. A second major automaker signing signals the technology is not a one-off partnership but a platform.

3. Non-automotive markets — defense, humanoid robotics, and AI data centers all represent optionality that the current $6.50 price does not reflect at all.